Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b57…de6b sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,187 (-6%) realized −$2,805 · open −$382
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%33W / 28L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$807per market
Trades / day210.5pace
Fees−$812est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 44% -15.5%
≤30d 61 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 61 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 44% -15.5%
all 61 -10.5% -19.0% 54% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover210.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 44% -15.5%
10% -26.7% 33% -23.6%
15% ← realistic here -33.8% 26% -31.0%
20% -40.3% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$826) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$442 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized−$2,805
Unrealized−$382
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses33 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$812
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage2d
Avg bet$807
Trades / day210.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 46¢ 46¢ $571 $565 −$6 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 58¢ 0¢ $376 $0 −$376 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $374 +$207 +56%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $500 +$249 +50%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $758 −$617 -81%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $498 −$498 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $376 −$20 -5%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $297 +$208 +70%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $228 −$228 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $1,622 −$396 -24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $374 −$369 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $525 +$224 +43%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $202 +$26 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $523 +$90 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $418 +$50 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1,842 +$471 +26%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $440 −$226 -51%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $372 −$372 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $517 −$517 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1,208 +$618 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $587 +$333 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $677 +$322 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $706 +$293 +41%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $413 −$413 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $633 −$633 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,007 −$8 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $649 +$256 +40%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $670 +$329 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $709 +$510 +72%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,614 +$268 +17%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $708 +$14 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 14 $938 −$64 -7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $397 −$7 -2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $487 −$487 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $450 −$450 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $397 −$397 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $520 −$520 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $812 −$472 -58%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $738 −$738 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $680 −$680 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5,359 −$2,359 -44%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,106 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $567 +$3 +0%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $710 +$635 +89%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $316 +$683 +216%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $497 +$502 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $874 −$9 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $696 +$201 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $580 55m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 87¢ $581 56m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $374 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 45¢ $373 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $394 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 80¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $160 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $98 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 52¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $336 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $455 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $58 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $11 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $40 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $77 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $122 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $10 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $4 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $5 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $24 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $60 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 40¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $564.94 · official $564.94 (match) · 515 history records