Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
5B 0x5b57…1f2e sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$6,067 (+8%) realized +$6,067 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%34W / 33L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,124per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$381est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,672
7 days+$1,363
14 days+$1,879
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$4,436
sports 46% −$4,336
world 5% +$2,200
crypto 3% +$1,620
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 56% -5.8%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 52% 52% -11.1%
≤90d 49 +8.7% -1.7% 51% 51% -5.2%
all 67 +15.1% +4.2% 51% 51% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 51% -4.8%
10% -5.8% 51% -13.9%
15% -14.9% 49% -22.2%
20% -23.2% 46% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,926) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,146 vs −$1,062 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,067
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses34 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$381
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage107d
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,921 −$1,890 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,850 −$2,850 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,491 +$2,209 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,013 −$998 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,573 −$2,538 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,290 −$1,272 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,400 +$2,200 +65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,176 +$1,467 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,926 +$1,299 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,505 +$1,620 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,106 −$1,092 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,090 −$2,062 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,965 +$1,560 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,475 +$1,125 +76%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,911 +$1,089 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,107 +$1,693 +153%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $796 +$374 +47%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $573 −$570 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $518 +$295 +57%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 07 $165 +$220 +134%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship May 24 $86 +$120 +140%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 23 $363 −$363 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $2,177 −$2,158 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 19 $1,465 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $138 −$137 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In May 13 $96 +$49 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $379 +$704 +186%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 03 $222 −$222 -100%
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Se Apr 23 $897 +$439 +49%
LoL: 7REX vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Apr 23 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $2,421 +$851 +35%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $2,092 −$2,092 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Apr 13 $779 −$779 -100%
Canadiens vs. Islanders Apr 13 $932 +$1,010 +108%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $2,788 −$2,788 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $710 +$1,961 +276%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $1,066 −$1,050 -99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $150 −$147 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $625 +$601 +96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets Mar 30 $434 +$738 +170%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 27 $382 +$624 +163%
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Mar 26 $742 −$742 -100%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Mar 24 $649 +$2,301 +354%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $4,240 +$3,331 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $782 −$782 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,921 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,937 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $66 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $7 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $218 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $133 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $398 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $48 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $27 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,491 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,013 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,573 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $1,290 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $3,400 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $2,176 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $448 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $1,478 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $2,505 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,106 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $2,090 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,965 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 56¢ $1,475 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 63¢ $1,911 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $39 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $207 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records