Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b5e…fdb5 crypto 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$504 (-10%) realized −$568 · open +$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%147W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day132.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$823
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 +11.0% +0.4% 64% 55% -26.3%
≤30d 231 +11.0% +0.4% 64% 55% -26.3%
≤90d 231 +11.0% +0.4% 64% 55% -26.3%
all 231 +11.0% +0.4% 64% 55% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 55% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 39% -33.4%
15% -18.0% 28% -39.8%
20% -26.0% 16% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$568
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses147 / 84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)231 / 233
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day132.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 20¢ 56¢ $36 $99 +$64 (+180%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $44 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$5 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$9 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $90 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $127 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$10 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $12 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.64 · official $90.87 · 833 history records