Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b5f…3397 sports 996 markets active 3h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,097 (+7%) realized +$16,098 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%444W / 544L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$1,445est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,180
7 days+$3,058
14 days+$2,823
30 days+$4,870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$12,656
politics 6% +$3,210
other 2% −$620
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +21.1% +9.6% 57% 56% +16.9%
≤30d 323 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 49% +1.1%
≤90d 810 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 44% -6.9%
all 988 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 45% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 45% -3.4%
10% -18.8% 43% -12.7%
15% -26.6% 42% -21.1%
20% -33.8% 36% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$196 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$631
Realized+$16,098
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses444 / 544
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,445
Open positions8
Markets (closed)988 / 996
History coverage277d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 988 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) illwill 70¢ 78¢ $134 $149 +$14 (+11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 45¢ 43¢ $101 $97 −$4 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $101 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 45¢ 44¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner KRÜ Blaze 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner KRÜ Blaze 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$38 +38%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$46 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$69 +134%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $104 +$23 +22%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$55 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$90 +178%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $101 +$41 +41%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$56 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$193 +188%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $79 +$126 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$203 +102%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $204 +$41 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$132 +129%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$51 +50%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$69 +69%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $682 +$18 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$70 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $511 +$529 +104%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$88 +86%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$51 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $153 −$151 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$353 +344%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$302 +307%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $108 −$107 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $199 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $188 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $102 +$155 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $108 +$212 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 +$304 +667%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 45¢ $100 2h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner BUY KRÜ Blaze 19¢ $5 4h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner BUY KRÜ Blaze 19¢ $5 4h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY illwill 70¢ $136 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $86 4h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $1 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $51 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $102 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $101 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 12h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $101 13h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 83¢ $50 13h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 81¢ $2 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $50 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 14h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 81¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 81¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 81¢ $43 15h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 17h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 17h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $1 22h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $6 22h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $6 22h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $87 22h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY KOLESIE 70¢ $101 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $79 39h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $101 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $98 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.12 · official $631.12 (match) · 2429 history records