Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5B 0x5b60…6143 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d ⚠

BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only

✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$363 (-2%) realized −$365 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate16%5W / 27L

Whale WR38%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$676per market

Trades / day197.2pace

Fees−$421est.

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$153

14 days−$332

30 days−$159

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-21.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-31.9%	-38.4%	0%	0%	-20.9%
≤30d	32	-13.4%	-21.6%	16%	0%	-10.2%
≤90d	32	-13.4%	-21.6%	16%	0%	-10.2%
all	32	-13.4%	-21.6%	16%	0%	-10.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover197.2 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-21.6%	0%	-10.2%
10%	-29.1%	0%	-18.8%
15% ← realistic here	-36.0%	0%	-26.6%
20%	-42.3%	0%	-33.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 95% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 38% (≥$873) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -9% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

53.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$42 vs −$14 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized−$365

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)16%

Wins / losses5 / 27

Whale WR (big bets)38%

Est. fees paid−$421

Open positions1

Markets (closed)32 / 33

History coverage18d ⚠

Avg bet$676

Trades / day197.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	48¢	50¢	$48	$50	+$2 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$612	−$138	-23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$277	−$8	-3%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$787	−$7	-1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21?	Jun 20	$17	−$1	-6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$8	$0	-2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$661	−$2	-0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1	$0	-22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$4	$0	-12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$23	−$3	-14%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$105	+$1	+1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$4	−$2	-49%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$7	−$1	-21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	−$5	-25%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$25	−$7	-29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	$0	-1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$124	−$6	-5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$39	$0	+0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$22	$0	-1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$873	−$21	-2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$972	−$5	-1%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$691	−$8	-1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$982	−$10	-1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$691	−$57	-8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$624	−$6	-1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$1,232	−$33	-3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$743	−$7	-1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$1,080	−$9	-1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$1,981	+$10	+0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$675	−$3	-0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$1,140	−$25	-2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$3,569	+$97	+3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$4,215	+$100	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	48¢	$18	2h
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	48¢	$31	2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	97¢	$19	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	69¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	69¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$13	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	71¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	69¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$13	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	68¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	67¢	$13	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	67¢	$13	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	69¢	$14	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	69¢	$9	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	69¢	$5	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$10	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	48¢	$10	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$4	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$12	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$3	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$6	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$1	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$1	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$2	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$2	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	67¢	$8	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.50 (match) · 3500 history records