Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b62…d87f sports 632 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (310 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,778 (+5%) realized +$12,893 · open +$885
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%297W / 424L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day309.6pace
Fees−$3,187est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$26,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45,396
7 days−$9,783
14 days+$18,736
30 days+$18,736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$68,161
other 15% +$7,156
world 0% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (310 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 592 -42.0% -47.5% 33% 28% -14.4%
≤30d 721 -20.9% -28.4% 41% 36% -2.6%
≤90d 721 -20.9% -28.4% 41% 36% -2.6%
all 721 -20.9% -28.4% 41% 36% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 36% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 34% -11.9%
15% -41.5% 31% -20.4%
20% -47.2% 28% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -99% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$178 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$26,097
Realized+$12,893
Unrealized+$885
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses297 / 424
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$3,187
Open positions107
Markets (closed)721 / 632
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$427
Trades / day309.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 107 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 82¢ 98¢ $820 $982 +$162 (+20%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Under 57¢ 76¢ $570 $760 +$190 (+33%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 72¢ $500 $725 +$225 (+45%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 69¢ 69¢ $690 $695 +$5 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 68¢ 68¢ $680 $685 +$5 (+1%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 67¢ 68¢ $670 $675 +$5 (+1%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 67¢ 68¢ $670 $675 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 61¢ 78¢ $486 $622 +$135 (+28%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 60¢ $590 $600 +$10 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 42¢ 57¢ $420 $567 +$147 (+35%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? No 56¢ 56¢ $560 $565 +$5 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 56¢ $520 $555 +$35 (+7%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 55¢ $530 $545 +$15 (+3%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ 55¢ $609 $544 −$65 (-11%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Bergs 53¢ 53¢ $530 $530 +$0 (+0%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ 52¢ $430 $525 +$95 (+22%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 48¢ 50¢ $494 $524 +$30 (+6%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 45¢ 52¢ $450 $515 +$65 (+14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 51¢ $480 $510 +$30 (+6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 50¢ $510 $505 −$5 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 52¢ 48¢ $520 $485 −$35 (-7%)
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Humbert 45¢ 47¢ $450 $470 +$20 (+4%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics Athletics 46¢ 46¢ $460 $465 +$5 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Sinja Kraus Oksana Selekhmeteva 45¢ 46¢ $450 $465 +$15 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $0 $0 +52%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $170 −$170 -100%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 29 $380 −$380 -100%
Nuno Borges vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $235 −$235 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Stephens Jun 29 $420 −$420 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $170 −$170 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Belinda Bencic Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 29 $330 −$330 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-03-22? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 29 $460 −$460 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $490 −$490 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 29 $560 −$560 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Darderi Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 29 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 29 $504 −$504 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 29 $370 −$370 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 29 $291 −$291 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Brooksby vs Ruud Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Karen Khachanov vs. Arthur Gea: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $256 −$256 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 29 $403 −$403 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Pridankina vs Oliynykova Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinina vs Parry Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Doumbia/Reboul Jun 29 $249 −$249 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $136 12m
Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Svrcina (+2.5) BUY Svrcina 46¢ $21 14m
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5) BUY Ruud 46¢ $5 21m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $94 33m
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $4 53m
Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Svrcina (+2.5) BUY Svrcina 46¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $126 1h
Set Handicap: Tien (-2.5) vs Svrcina (+2.5) BUY Svrcina 46¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $11 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $212 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $20 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 56¢ $560 1h
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zakharova (+1.5) BUY Zakharova 34¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $35 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $400 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $136 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $6 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 61¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,097.34 · official $26,096.73 (match) · 3500 history records