trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 70¢ | 60¢ | $150 | $129 | −$21 (-14%) |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $66 | $99 | +$33 (+50%) |
| Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the top Spotify album for 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 50¢ | $60 | $54 | −$6 (-11%) |
| Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026? | No | 57¢ | 62¢ | $30 | $33 | +$3 (+9%) |
| Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $150 | $0 | −$150 (-100%) |
| Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? | Jun 12 | $51 | +$31 | +61% |
| Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in | Jun 10 | $56 | +$11 | +19% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 01 | $56 | +$41 | +73% |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners | Jun 01 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Jun 01 | $41 | +$39 | +95% |
| Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene | May 30 | $31 | −$7 | -23% |
| Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $132 | +$41 | +31% |
| Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $28 | +$12 | +41% |
| Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $5 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $153 | −$150 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +39.8% | +26.5% | 100% | 100% | +25.6% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 67% | 58% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 67% | 58% | -8.2% |
| all | 12 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 67% | 58% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.4% | 58% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -11.7% | 42% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -20.3% | 33% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -28.1% | 25% | -32.3% |