Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b65…ba42 politics 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$20
other 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 92 -7.4% -16.2% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage694d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $58 $0 -1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Eric Skrmetta be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Feb 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Farcaster airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Hurts be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
PartyDAO airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC North? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $0 $0 -3%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dynamo Kyiv win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Juan Soto sign with the Boston Red Sox? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the AFC south? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $58 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 17d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $58 25d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $58 25d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 36d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $58 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $58 42d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 65d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 65d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 71d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 72d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 83d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 83d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 85d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 85d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 94d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 94d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $13 94d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $27 94d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 94d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 99d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 99d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 99d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 102d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records