Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b6a…3c24 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$393 (+34%) realized +$393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$389
sports 10% +$20
crypto 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -26.0% -33.1% 41% 41% +21.9%
≤30d 29 -26.0% -33.1% 41% 41% +21.9%
≤90d 29 -26.0% -33.1% 41% 41% +21.9%
all 29 -26.0% -33.1% 41% 41% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 41% +21.9%
10% -39.5% 38% +10.2%
15% -45.3% 24% -0.4%
20% -50.7% 21% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$9 · ×5.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $104 +$25 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$110 +55%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $3 +$7 +199%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$18 +332%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$11 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova SELL Maria Lourdes Carle 77¢ $70 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Maria Lourdes Carle 55¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova SELL Maria Lourdes Carle 72¢ $58 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Maria Lourdes Carle 63¢ $51 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Maria Lourdes Carle 83¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova SELL Lucie Havlickova 12¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 12¢ $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $4 2d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records