Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5b6b…ec86 sports 881 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,496 (-11%) realized −$7,509 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%296W / 567L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$1,522est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$40
14 days+$80
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$9,805
other 4% +$293
world 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -10.3% -18.8% 38% 38% -11.8%
≤30d 215 -7.0% -15.8% 40% 40% -15.1%
≤90d 863 -12.4% -20.7% 34% 34% -22.3%
all 863 -12.4% -20.7% 34% 34% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 34% -22.3%
10% -28.3% 33% -29.8%
15% -35.2% 32% -36.6%
20% -41.6% 30% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$69 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$7,509
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses296 / 567
Est. fees paid−$1,522
Open positions2
Markets (closed)863 / 881
History coverage70d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 31¢ 38¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+21%)
ITF Tanger: Florian Broska vs Yassine Dlimi Yassine Dlimi 40¢ 48¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $33 −$32 -98%
ITF Zagreb: Oleg Prihodko vs Dimitris Sakellaridis Jun 26 $18 −$18 -98%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Hikaru Sato Jun 25 $26 −$26 -98%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao Jun 25 $16 +$10 +65%
ITF Maanshan: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang Jun 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $60 −$58 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $40 +$51 +128%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Jun 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $140 −$138 -98%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Cayetana Gay vs Carolyn Ansari Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Elena Micic Jun 23 $80 −$30 -38%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Min Liu vs Berta Bonardi Jun 23 $53 −$52 -98%
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 23 $46 −$5 -11%
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil Jun 23 $30 +$41 +139%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $60 +$74 +123%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $99 +$86 +87%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $102 +$82 +81%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $70 +$32 +45%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez Jun 23 $62 −$61 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 23 $51 +$62 +122%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $46 +$93 +203%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $36 +$133 +371%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $40 +$36 +91%
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Jun 23 $42 +$18 +42%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $44 +$72 +165%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 23 $44 −$43 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $44 −$43 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $33 −$32 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Nuria Brancaccio vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 23 $44 −$43 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Tiana Tian Deng vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $13 +$23 +172%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $70 −$69 -98%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $61 +$26 +42%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $27 +$30 +109%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Yidi Yang vs Junhan Zhang Jun 17 $30 +$33 +112%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
ITF Haskovo: Ilinca Dalina Amariei vs Oana Georgeta Simion Jun 17 $40 +$76 +191%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 31¢ $33 48m
ITF Tanger: Florian Broska vs Yassine Dlimi BUY Yassine Dlimi 40¢ $31 1h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 39¢ $33 2h
ITF Zagreb: Oleg Prihodko vs Dimitris Sakellaridis BUY Dimitris Sakellaridis 14¢ $18 2h
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Hikaru Sato BUY Anchisa Chanta 46¢ $26 27h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao SELL Erika Sema 48¢ $26 27h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 28¢ $16 28h
ITF Maanshan: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang BUY Wushuang Zheng 33¢ $16 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Gauthier Onclin 38¢ $34 46h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 22¢ $60 47h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 13¢ $31 2d
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Niels McDonald 100¢ $91 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris BUY Zsombor Piros 22¢ $43 2d
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 43¢ $40 2d
ITF Gdansk: Carolina Alves vs Martina Capurro Taborda BUY Carolina Alves 39¢ $31 2d
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Adan Freire Da Silva BUY Adan Freire Da Silva 16¢ $17 2d
ITF Taipei: Ayano Shimizu vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho BUY Ayano Shimizu 38¢ $21 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $140 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Vaishnavi Adkar vs Han Shi BUY Vaishnavi Adkar 20¢ $49 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Cayetana Gay vs Carolyn Ansari BUY Cayetana Gay 9¢ $20 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Elena Micic BUY Stephanie Judith Visscher 26¢ $30 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Min Liu vs Berta Bonardi BUY Min Liu 39¢ $53 2d
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Paulo Dos Santos 35¢ $41 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Elena Micic SELL Stephanie Judith Visscher 43¢ $47 2d
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil SELL Bella Payne 100¢ $71 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco SELL Monaco 100¢ $134 2d
ITF Palma Del Rio: Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Elena Micic BUY Stephanie Judith Visscher 44¢ $50 2d
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil BUY Bella Payne 41¢ $30 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 44¢ $60 2d
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 38¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.14 · official $72.66 · 1407 history records