Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b6b…21e7 crypto 1133 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$562 (-5%) realized −$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%524W / 583L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$60
14 days−$40
30 days−$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$755
other 0% −$15
sports 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 57% -4.3%
≤30d 469 -5.8% -14.7% 51% 50% -14.2%
≤90d 1107 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 46% -15.4%
all 1107 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 46% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 46% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 44% -23.5%
15% -33.6% 39% -30.9%
20% -40.1% 35% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses524 / 583
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1107 / 1133
History coverage77d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1107 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$19 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$18 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 +$30 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $73 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2407 history records