Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b6c…5457 sports 13 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$562 (-60%) realized −$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$573
other 22% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 15% 15% -65.6%
≤30d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 15% 15% -65.6%
≤90d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 15% 15% -65.6%
all 13 -17.2% -25.1% 15% 15% -65.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 15% -65.6%
10% -32.2% 8% -68.9%
15% -38.8% 8% -71.9%
20% -44.8% 8% -74.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$64 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $84 −$81 -97%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $164 −$162 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $168 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $86 −$84 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $251 −$251 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 +$122 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 12¢ $84 4d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 4d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 32¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 24¢ $10 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $164 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $164 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $86 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $168 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $148 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 17¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 11¢ $251 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records