Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5B 0x5b6e…8547 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$884 (+43%) realized +$685 · open +$199

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip

Net edge+48%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$340per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+47.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+63.2%	+47.7%	100%	100%	+43.9%
≤30d	4	+63.2%	+47.7%	100%	100%	+43.9%
≤90d	4	+63.2%	+47.7%	100%	100%	+43.9%
all	4	+63.2%	+47.7%	100%	100%	+43.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+47.7%	100%	+43.9%
10%	+33.5%	100%	+30.1%
15%	+20.6%	100%	+17.6%
20%	+8.8%	75%	+6.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +63% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$189 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$944

Realized+$685

Unrealized+$199

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage9d

Avg bet$340

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$545	$697	+$151 (+28%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	86¢	$200	$248	+$48 (+24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$653	+$322	+49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$223	+$157	+70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$290	+$207	+71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$111	+$69	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$202	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$431	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$222	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$223	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$180	30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$180	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$110	40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$111	40h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$558	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $944.46 · official $944.46 (match) · 22 history records