Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5B 0x5b6e…f544 sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162,205 (-38%) realized −$162,205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,355per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Fees−$11,447est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26,972
7 days−$53,915
14 days−$53,915
30 days−$78,900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$208,519
other 5% −$10,443
politics 0% +$3,014
world 0% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -64.3% -67.7% 8% 8% -69.9%
≤30d 73 -65.3% -68.6% 8% 8% -77.0%
≤90d 108 -37.6% -43.5% 12% 12% -66.7%
all 108 -37.6% -43.5% 12% 12% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.5% 12% -66.7%
10% -48.9% 12% -69.9%
15% ← realistic here -53.9% 12% -72.8%
20% -58.4% 11% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$2,723) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,114 vs −$3,597 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$162,205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$11,447
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 99
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$4,355
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (96 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Jun 25 $391 −$391 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Jun 25 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 25 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 25 $1,136 −$1,136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $188 −$188 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Jun 25 $2,723 −$2,723 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Jun 25 $2,496 −$2,496 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 25 $1,546 −$1,546 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 25 $4,290 −$4,290 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $371 −$370 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $125 −$125 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1,052 −$1,031 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $639 −$625 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $590 −$579 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $410 −$400 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $973 −$950 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $800 −$798 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $165 −$161 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $715 −$700 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $602 −$598 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $512 +$2,722 +532%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $1,688 −$1,651 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $401 −$400 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $238 −$238 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $514 −$500 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $875 −$875 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $514 −$500 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $932 −$913 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $274 −$270 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,196 −$1,173 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,937 −$1,900 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $973 −$950 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $353 −$346 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $696 −$676 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,329 −$1,300 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $514 −$500 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $720 −$700 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $804 +$2,446 +304%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,093 −$1,075 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $750 −$750 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $215 −$209 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,298 −$1,288 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,189 −$2,188 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $863 −$845 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,754 −$1,728 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $435 +$2,217 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 54m
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records