Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b6e…61d4 sports 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$16
other 24% −$13
politics 20% −$9
crypto 13% −$3
economics 5% −$1
world 4% −$2
culture 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 150 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 128
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage161d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $567 −$2 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $50 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $386 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $495 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $66 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 02 $45 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $61 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $441 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $138 +$2 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 28 $148 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 28 $138 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $151 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 26 $753 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $473 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $145 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $59 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $59 8h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 7d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 8d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $57 21d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $57 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $53 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $53 34d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $50 67d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 67d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $47 67d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $47 67d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 67d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 67d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 67d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 68d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $53 68d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $54 68d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 68d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 68d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $43 68d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $43 68d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 91¢ $11 68d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 91¢ $46 68d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 92¢ $58 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $63 69d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $64 69d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 69d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 69d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 655 history records