Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b71…5f5a crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-8%) realized −$115 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$169
other 26% −$78
politics 20% +$16
world 18% +$46
sports 4% +$55
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.9% +18.5% 54% 46% -4.2%
≤30d 26 +10.8% +0.2% 50% 46% -2.1%
≤90d 26 +10.8% +0.2% 50% 46% -2.1%
all 58 -10.2% -18.7% 43% 41% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 41% -19.7%
10% -26.5% 31% -27.4%
15% -33.6% 26% -34.4%
20% -40.1% 21% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions33
Markets (closed)58 / 91
History coverage154d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $71 $79 +$9 (+12%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 70¢ 72¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+43%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? No 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes $12 $6 −$6 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $61 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$38 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$28 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $5 +$4 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $25 +$16 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $20 +$10 +49%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $5 −$1 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $16 +$3 +21%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? May 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 2? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 2? Feb 01 $26 +$6 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on February 2? Jan 31 $22 +$4 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jan 31 $24 −$5 -20%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 20 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 20? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18? Jan 18 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 18 $20 −$10 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $20 −$3 -15%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 15 $20 +$14 +72%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 15? Jan 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 14? Jan 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? Jan 13 $20 +$27 +136%
Solana Up or Down on January 14? Jan 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18? Jan 13 $24 +$7 +28%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Jan 13 $20 $0 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 37h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.16 · official $457.17 (match) · 214 history records