Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b72…3af4 economics 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 35% −$2
sports 29% −$2
finance 14% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
tech 4% $0
politics 4% $0
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.2% -15.1% 25% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 30 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 3% -14.9%
≤90d 30 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 3% -14.9%
all 30 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 3% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 3% -14.9%
10% -31.1% 0% -23.1%
15% -37.8% 0% -30.5%
20% -43.9% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 75¢ 75¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 54¢ 37¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -12%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Jun 08 $0 $0 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 03 $0 $0 -31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 03 $0 $0 -54%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -75%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Jun 03 $0 $0 -34%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 03 $0 $0 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 -3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $3 $0 +17%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 25 $1 $0 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 75¢ $4 7m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 10m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 13m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 26m
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 54¢ $4 28m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 28m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 28m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 37m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 38¢ $2 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 62¢ $3 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $1 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.38 · official $16.37 (match) · 134 history records