Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5B 0x5b74…5ab5 crypto 964 markets active 1h ago coverage 313d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 313d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,921 (+0%) realized +$1,916 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%944W / 15L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,505per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$128
14 days+$372
30 days+$592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,358
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 126 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 371 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 2% -9.3%
all 959 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$1,998) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$304 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$8,498
Realized+$1,916
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses944 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)959 / 964
History coverage313d ⚠
Avg bet$1,505
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 959 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,491 $3,495 +$4 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,996 $1,997 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,996 $1,995 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $990 $991 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $693 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,496 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,472 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,496 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,960 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $895 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,497 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,837 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,846 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $659 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 14? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 14? Jun 14 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,609 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,498 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,497 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,964 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,048 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,594 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,000 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 12? Jun 12 $602 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,013 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $3,437 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $598 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,993 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $548 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,071 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,495 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,059 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $432 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,497 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,988 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,991 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,115 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,674 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $571 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,988 +$33 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $205 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $422 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,705 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,049 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $991 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,496 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,988 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $398 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $686 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $169 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $474 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,498 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $588 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $306 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $495 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,496 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,960 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,497 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $224 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,497.74 · official $8,497.74 (match) · 3500 history records