Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b75…433b sports 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62,295 (+10%) realized +$68,558 · open −$6,263
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%223W / 247L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1,301per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7,464est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,426
7 days−$7,478
14 days+$44,985
30 days−$60,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$74,031
other 21% −$21,782
tech 2% +$1,525
crypto 1% −$6,588
world 1% +$5,405
economics 0% +$346
politics 0% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +13.4% +2.6% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤30d 207 -21.0% -28.6% 31% 31% -23.5%
≤90d 372 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 45% -0.6%
all 470 +4.2% -5.8% 47% 45% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 45% -0.6%
10% -14.8% 43% -10.1%
15% -23.0% 40% -18.8%
20% -30.6% 40% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,824) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,528 vs −$1,141 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$27,303
Realized+$68,558
Unrealized−$6,263
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses223 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$7,464
Open positions14
Markets (closed)470 / 484
History coverage465d
Avg bet$1,301
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25,198 $19,682 −$5,516 (-22%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 38¢ $6,000 $4,812 −$1,188 (-20%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $616 $640 +$24 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 30¢ 68¢ $240 $548 +$308 (+128%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 80¢ 90¢ $400 $452 +$52 (+13%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 60¢ 86¢ $300 $428 +$128 (+42%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 62¢ $200 $248 +$48 (+24%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 34¢ 22¢ $272 $172 −$100 (-37%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 12¢ 30¢ $49 $122 +$73 (+150%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 54¢ 100¢ $54 $100 +$46 (+85%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 68¢ 29¢ $204 $87 −$117 (-57%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-59%)
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? Meta 50¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,070 +$4,363 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,021 +$2,312 +226%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,547 −$2,500 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,538 −$3,500 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,058 +$5,513 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,533 +$1,931 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,041 +$4,209 +206%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,516 −$1,500 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,581 −$4,500 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $308 +$4,237 +1374%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6,598 −$6,500 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6,097 +$6,946 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6,102 +$7,699 +126%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,040 −$2,000 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,047 −$4,000 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,109 −$7,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5,576 +$4,609 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $3,569 +$6,725 +188%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,115 +$10,551 +172%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,035 +$1,883 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5,081 −$5,000 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5,093 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4,072 +$5,928 +146%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,531 −$1,500 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,543 −$3,500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,524 +$1,668 +109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $78 +$165 +212%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,552 −$2,500 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $817 −$800 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3,244 −$3,200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,037 +$3,226 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 11 $816 −$816 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $817 −$817 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1,222 −$1,222 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2,028 −$2,028 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,328 −$1,328 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,035 −$2,035 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $3,046 −$3,046 -100%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3,048 −$3,048 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 11 $2,143 −$2,143 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3,051 −$3,051 -100%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3,553 −$3,553 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3,557 −$3,557 -100%
Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $3,558 −$3,558 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $6,094 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1,021 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5,070 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $2,547 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $3,538 17h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $3,058 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5,061 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2,041 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2,533 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,516 43h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $4,581 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6,598 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $206 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $308 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $6,097 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6,102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2,040 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4,047 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $7,109 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $3,569 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $5,576 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $244 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,302.77 · official $27,177.67 (match) · 1535 history records