Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5B 0x5b75…7426 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+7%) realized +$71 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$36
sports 34% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +19.3% +7.9% 60% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 10 +19.3% +7.9% 60% 50% -2.8%
≤90d 10 +19.3% +7.9% 60% 50% -2.8%
all 10 +19.3% +7.9% 60% 50% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 50% -2.8%
10% -2.4% 30% -12.1%
15% -11.8% 30% -20.6%
20% -20.5% 30% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$35 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $162 +$16 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $172 +$35 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$18 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$9 -18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $104 +$70 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$8 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $89 −$58 -65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $140 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $102 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 37h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $41 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $52 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $173 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $104 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 85¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 16¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 73¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 23¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 26¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 73¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 75¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 25¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.72 · official $129.72 (match) · 39 history records