Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5B
0x5b78…95dd
sports · 32 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$176 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$180 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$91
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage153d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 5 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Scotland 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 10¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Slovakia 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 18¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Finland 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 39¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Miami vs. Indiana Miami 26¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Yes 30¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 49¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$33 +325%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $51 +$88 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $5 +$5 +88%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $7 +$3 +39%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 20 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 19 $26 +$24 +89%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $14 +$13 +94%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Texans (-3.5) Jan 13 $25 +$32 +127%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $25 +$15 +61%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$63
sports 46% +$110
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 21¢ $5 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $10 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $52 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $10 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 23h
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) SELL Knicks 47¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $4 2d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 2d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 105d
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia BUY Slovakia 12¢ $1 113d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 22¢ $1 113d
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada BUY USA 81¢ $80 114d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 144d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 53¢ $26 147d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes $2 148d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 149d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +49.0% +34.8% 67% 67% +86.2%
≤30d 12 +49.0% +34.8% 67% 67% +86.2%
≤90d 12 +49.0% +34.8% 67% 67% +86.2%
all 27 +17.9% +6.6% 59% 59% +26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 59% +26.8%
10% -3.6% 59% +14.7%
15% -12.9% 52% +3.6%
20% -21.4% 44% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.39 · official $91.40 (match) · 50 history records