Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b7b…42be other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$22
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$9
sports 26% +$2
other 18% −$6
politics 16% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 24 -0.6% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 36 +29.0% +16.7% 33% 3% -9.5%
all 81 +10.7% +0.2% 30% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -9.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -18.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -26.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 57
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage470d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 47¢ $166 $166 +$0 (+0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $311 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $158 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $212 +$5 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 -6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $283 +$5 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $153 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $153 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $145 +$6 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $218 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $158 −$4 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $135 +$7 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $299 −$7 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $152 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $154 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $38 +$2 +4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $822 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $128 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $26 −$1 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,232 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $910 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $908 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Mar 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $9 $0 -4%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $1 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $166 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $144 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $143 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $68 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $105 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $173 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $26 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $131 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $158 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $107 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $146 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $95 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $142 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $68 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $66 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $138 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $138 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $77 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $76 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $153 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.99 · official $164.61 · 300 history records