Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b7e…857e crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$424 (-25%) realized −$469 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$80
14 days−$172
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$481
crypto 25% −$89
other 5% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -35.5% -41.6% 25% 25% -52.6%
≤90d 44 -31.0% -37.5% 23% 23% -37.9%
all 44 -31.0% -37.5% 23% 23% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 23% -37.9%
10% -43.5% 23% -43.9%
15% -49.0% 23% -49.3%
20% -54.0% 23% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$33 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage77d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 21¢ 54¢ $29 $74 +$45 (+155%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $73 +$116 +158%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $139 −$137 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions May 10 $148 −$134 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers May 01 $43 −$38 -88%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $73 −$71 -98%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $117 −$115 -98%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Ningbo Rockets Apr 12 $190 −$186 -98%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks Apr 12 $287 +$306 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 05 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 05 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 05 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 05 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 05 $54 +$38 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 05 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 05 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 05 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$29 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$43 +430%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$39 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 05 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 05 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 05 $14 +$26 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 05 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 05 $5 +$8 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $30 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 33¢ $81 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $73 9d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $139 10d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 37¢ $73 12d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 41d
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions SELL Shanxi Loongs 4¢ $14 41d
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Shanxi Loongs 41¢ $148 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 50d
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers SELL Guangzhou Loong Lions 4¢ $5 50d
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers BUY Guangzhou Loong Lions 33¢ $8 50d
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers BUY Guangzhou Loong Lions 33¢ $35 50d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 19¢ $73 54d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 41¢ $117 66d
Qingdao Eagles vs. Ningbo Rockets BUY Ningbo Rockets 35¢ $114 69d
Qingdao Eagles vs. Ningbo Rockets BUY Ningbo Rockets 41¢ $76 69d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks SELL Shanghai Sharks 84¢ $593 69d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 40¢ $287 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $15 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $30 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $20 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $54 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.88 · official $77.33 · 75 history records