Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b7f…2ee8 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$33 (+8%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$144
other 37% +$37
crypto 7% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +21.4% +9.8% 55% 55% +36.4%
≤30d 11 +21.4% +9.8% 55% 55% +36.4%
≤90d 11 +21.4% +9.8% 55% 55% +36.4%
all 11 +21.4% +9.8% 55% 55% +36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 55% +36.4%
10% -0.7% 55% +23.3%
15% -10.3% 55% +11.4%
20% -19.1% 36% +0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$15 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $149 +$172 +115%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $14 +$22 +151%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win on 20 Jun 20 $15 +$25 +165%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$2 -46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$42 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$15 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records