Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5B
0x5b84…bbab
other · 49 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$561 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$618 · open −$214
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$655
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions21
Markets (closed)28 / 49
History coverage41d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 21 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$475
7 days+$649
14 days+$649
30 days+$649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Japan 77¢ 78¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 76¢ 74¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-3%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 100¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+99%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 10¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 51¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 16¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 19¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$149 +291%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $31 +$184 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $71 +$22 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 +$122 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 +$107 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$210 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $21 +$104 +510%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 11 $47 −$7 -14%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 11 $356 −$41 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 06 $152 −$6 -4%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? May 06 $32 −$15 -49%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 06 $10 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $90 in May? May 06 $103 +$40 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% +$241
other 34% +$201
crypto 22% −$32
tech 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $81 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 8h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $66 8h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $91 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $6 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 9h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $61 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $111 9h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $30 9h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $61 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +65.7% +49.9% 48% 48% +27.8%
≤30d 21 +65.7% +49.9% 48% 48% +27.8%
≤90d 28 +44.2% +30.5% 39% 39% +15.0%
all 28 +44.2% +30.5% 39% 39% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.5% 39% +15.0%
10% +18.0% 39% +4.0%
15% +6.6% 36% -6.0%
20% -3.9% 21% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.66 · official $654.68 (match) · 75 history records