Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b85…02fa politics 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$28
politics 25% −$26
sports 22% −$13
crypto 10% −$5
world 5% $0
finance 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% −$2
economics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.8% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 124 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 144 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 128
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage101d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $152 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $176 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $45 $0 -1%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $49 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $65 −$2 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $220 −$2 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $221 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $237 −$3 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $99 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $162 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $45 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $60 2h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $61 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 16h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $38 17h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $38 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 28h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $49 29h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $50 33h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $46 33h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $46 41h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 42h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $39 42h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $45 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $45 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $26 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 90¢ $26 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $66 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 3d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.11 · official $49.11 (match) · 498 history records