Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b87…b93a world 44 markets active 11h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$10
other 13% −$8
politics 7% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.7% -3.5% 40% 40% +5.3%
≤30d 40 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 35% -9.3%
≤90d 40 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 35% -9.3%
all 40 +2.4% -7.4% 40% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 35% -9.3%
10% -16.2% 32% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 28% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 66¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $17 +$7 +40%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 28 $2 +$2 +72%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? Jun 27 $3 $0 -15%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 26 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 26 $30 +$8 +28%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $4 +$5 +122%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $20 −$4 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -24%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $14 +$9 +69%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $60 −$26 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $40 +$18 +44%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -91%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -13%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -47%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $9 −$3 -28%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $10 −$4 -47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $26 +$29 +114%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $95 −$31 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$7 -24%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$6 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +37%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 10h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $4 11h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $2 11h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 22h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 22h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? SELL Yes 89¢ $0 24h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 24h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 25h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in July? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 41h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 80¢ $0 42h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 78¢ $1 42h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? SELL No 78¢ $0 42h
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? BUY No 84¢ $1 42h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK SELL Yes 17¢ $3 43h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 88¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $0 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 3d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 5d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 73¢ $1 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.94 · official $29.98 (match) · 257 history records