Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b87…9601 crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-2%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate51%84W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 17% -11.6%
≤30d 150 -6.9% -15.8% 49% 20% -11.0%
≤90d 165 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 21% -11.3%
all 165 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 21% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 21% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 13% -19.8%
15% -31.8% 10% -27.6%
20% -38.5% 4% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses84 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage44d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$49 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $44 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$8 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$15 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $130 −$21 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$6 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $9 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1514 history records