Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5B 0x5b88…eae5 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$579 (+41%) realized +$579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +10.2%
≤30d 4 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +10.2%
≤90d 4 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +10.2%
all 4 -32.1% -38.5% 50% 50% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 50% +10.2%
10% -44.4% 50% -0.4%
15% -49.8% 50% -10.0%
20% -54.7% 0% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$75 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 −$140 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $105 +$37 +35%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,155 +$420 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $146 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $142 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,574 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,155 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.09 (match) · 6 history records