Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b88…9d30 weather 755 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+0%) realized +$140 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%684W / 58L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days+$9
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% +$119
world 10% +$6
other 5% −$1
crypto 3% +$5
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 256 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 683 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 1% -9.1%
all 742 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.6% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses684 / 58
Open positions13
Markets (closed)742 / 755
History coverage242d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 742 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 29? No 100¢ 97¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27? Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $193 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 22? Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $20 16h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $43 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $94 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.40 · official $418.40 (match) · 1824 history records