Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b8a…9bee world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$13
other 10% −$4
finance 4% +$1
sports 0% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 24 +24.1% +12.3% 25% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 26 +22.3% +10.6% 27% 8% -9.0%
all 34 +8.8% -1.6% 32% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 9% -9.3%
10% -11.0% 9% -18.0%
15% -19.6% 6% -25.9%
20% -27.5% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage526d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $89 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $159 −$3 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $120 −$3 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $89 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $62 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $8 +$19 +255%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 −$1 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $34 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Puka Nacua score a touchdown? Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Jan 22 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the match between Tottenham and Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 09 $6 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 28h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $13 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $40 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $8 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $28 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $18 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $8 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $31 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $44 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $49 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $50 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records