Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b8b…fb0a crypto 198 markets active 2d ago coverage 15d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,020 (-9%) realized −$4,020 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%43W / 154L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$9,201
other 1% −$254
sports 0% +$37
weather 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -62.0% -65.6% 15% 15% -59.3%
≤30d 197 -29.3% -36.0% 22% 22% -30.6%
≤90d 197 -29.3% -36.0% 22% 22% -30.6%
all 197 -29.3% -36.0% 22% 22% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 22% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 22% -37.2%
15% -47.7% 21% -43.3%
20% -52.8% 20% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$432 vs −$182 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses43 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage15d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $525 −$525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $513 −$488 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $368 +$488 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 14 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $336 +$589 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $485 −$485 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $218 −$23 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $259 +$90 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $736 +$173 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $325 −$325 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $365 −$365 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $264 −$264 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $264 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $249 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $58 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $328 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $196 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $232 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $292 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $251 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $74 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $256 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $417 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $209 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $261 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $73 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $165 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $77 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $387 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $193 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $261 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $229 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 554 history records