Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b8c…3f96 crypto 304 markets active 3h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$96 (-0%) realized +$179 · open −$275
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate65%197W / 105L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$118
14 days−$303
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$1,328
sports 44% +$1,238
other 3% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.4% +3.5% 57% 57% +0.6%
≤30d 60 -26.9% -33.8% 40% 40% -11.5%
≤90d 119 -18.4% -26.2% 45% 39% -8.4%
all 302 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -9.5%
10% -23.7% 29% -18.2%
15% -31.0% 18% -26.1%
20% -37.8% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$87 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$4,807
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$275
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses197 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions2
Markets (closed)302 / 304
History coverage219d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4,962 $4,691 −$271 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$86 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $28 +$7 +26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$20 -42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $40 −$38 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $98 −$76 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 +$66 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $602 +$93 +16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $538 −$527 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $198 +$92 +46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $159 +$39 +24%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $143 −$141 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $99 +$43 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $256 +$75 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $193 +$62 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $199 −$6 -3%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $877 −$866 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $299 −$294 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $248 −$245 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 02 $228 −$225 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $206 +$1,048 +509%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $199 −$196 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $116 −$114 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $90 −$88 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoff May 30 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 30 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 30 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 30 $299 −$299 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 30 $139 −$139 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $709 −$709 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 30 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2,067 +$2,408 +116%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $174 +$50 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $132 +$42 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $121 15h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $28 19h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $28 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $47 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,967 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,000 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $994 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 10¢ $40 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 9¢ $22 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $98 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $264 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $266 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $153 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $691 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 44¢ $695 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $204 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $398 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 17¢ $100 9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 30¢ $199 9d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 29¢ $239 9d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $290 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $198 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $198 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $159 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,807.18 · official $4,807.18 (match) · 724 history records