Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b8c…3d68 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 12% −$9
other 6% +$4
sports 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +4.5% -5.4% 21% 7% -7.9%
≤90d 43 +4.9% -5.1% 28% 19% -9.1%
all 57 +3.3% -6.6% 25% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 14% -9.6%
10% -15.5% 14% -18.2%
15% -23.7% 14% -26.1%
20% -31.2% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage603d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $76 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 18 $11 +$7 +65%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $156 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +52%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$7 +70%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$6 +104%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 03 $43 $0 +1%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 27 $17 +$31 +178%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 23 $21 +$17 +82%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $82 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $79 +$3 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 29 $13,556 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 23d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 28d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 29d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $11 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.85 · official $12.85 (match) · 256 history records