Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5b8d…bb92 sports 1133 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,298 (+3%) realized +$2,081 · open +$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%607W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$645est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$507
14 days+$1,606
30 days+$1,532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3,114
other 16% −$1,210
world 0% +$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +7.0% -3.2% 51% 50% -5.9%
≤30d 319 +10.4% -0.1% 56% 55% -4.0%
≤90d 754 +1.3% -8.3% 54% 53% -9.4%
all 1113 +2.7% -7.0% 55% 54% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 54% -7.5%
10% -15.9% 54% -16.4%
15% -24.1% 53% -24.4%
20% -31.5% 52% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$75 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$2,143
Realized+$2,081
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses607 / 506
Est. fees paid−$645
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1113 / 1133
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 52¢ 100¢ $156 $299 +$143 (+92%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 94¢ $170 $189 +$19 (+11%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 62¢ $186 $184 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 55¢ 56¢ $165 $166 +$2 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 52¢ $159 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ 50¢ $153 $152 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 47¢ 46¢ $141 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 38¢ $144 $128 −$16 (-11%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 46¢ 42¢ $138 $124 −$14 (-10%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 41¢ 40¢ $123 $118 −$4 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 97¢ $59 $97 +$38 (+65%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 96¢ $88 $96 +$8 (+9%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $63 $92 +$29 (+46%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 66¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ 42¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Sean Manaea: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $12 +$9 +70%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $156 +$144 +92%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 +$38 +61%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $153 +$147 +96%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $138 +$162 +117%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $163 −$163 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $168 −$168 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 18 $134 −$134 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $164 +$136 +83%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +96%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $152 +$148 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $45 +$55 +122%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $144 +$156 +108%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $149 +$151 +101%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +96%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $147 +$153 +104%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $184 +$116 +63%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $147 +$153 +104%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $162 −$162 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $302 −$302 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $177 +$123 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 32m
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 49¢ $45 48m
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $26 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $2 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $11 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $2 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $1 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $2 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $8 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $8 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $77 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $146 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $188 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $161 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $5 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $4 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $101 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $138 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $65 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $156 8h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $123 12h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $40 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $159 21h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $156 21h
Sean Manaea: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,143.18 · official $2,143.18 (match) · 3500 history records