Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b8f…960e crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-11%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 53% -19.6%
≤30d 34 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 53% -19.6%
≤90d 34 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 53% -19.6%
all 34 -8.5% -17.2% 76% 53% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 53% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 18% -27.3%
15% -32.3% 3% -34.3%
20% -39.0% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records