Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b8f…13c3 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$60 (-7%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%2W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$312
14 days−$312
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$353
other 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-76.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.7% -39.1% 22% 22% -46.5%
≤30d 9 -32.7% -39.1% 22% 22% -46.5%
≤90d 9 -32.7% -39.1% 22% 22% -46.5%
all 23 -73.7% -76.2% 9% 9% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.2% 9% -50.0%
10% -78.5% 9% -54.8%
15% -80.5% 9% -59.2%
20% -82.4% 9% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$32 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage182d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $301 −$292 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $94 +$209 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$96 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will BNB reach $950 in December? Dec 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on December 31 Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 31 Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 30 Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BNB reach $1,050 in December? Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in December? Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? Dec 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on December 28 Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 28 Dec 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records