Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b92…9a70 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
other 24% $0
politics 2% −$10
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 24 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 8% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -11.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -19.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage486d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $148 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 31 $8 +$1 +8%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 20 $8 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 03 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $29 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $4 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $34 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 40h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $9 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $10 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.58 · official $1.58 (match) · 74 history records