Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5b94…ef58 crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-8%) realized −$357 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%347W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day82.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$80
14 days−$320
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$317
sports 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -4.2% -13.3% 73% 41% -14.1%
≤30d 564 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 54% -17.8%
≤90d 564 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 54% -17.8%
all 564 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 54% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 54% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 31% -25.7%
15% -29.5% 19% -32.9%
20% -36.4% 11% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$357
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses347 / 217
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)564 / 564
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day82.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 564 Trades
no open positions (122 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$13 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$12 -39%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 3h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 49¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1258 history records