Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5B 0x5b9c…387e crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$383 (-36%) realized −$381 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$453
other 7% −$52
sports 5% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -42.1% -47.6% 36% 36% -32.4%
≤30d 19 -48.1% -53.1% 32% 26% -52.7%
≤90d 22 -54.8% -59.1% 27% 23% -57.6%
all 22 -54.8% -59.1% 27% 23% -57.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.1% 23% -57.6%
10% -63.0% 23% -61.6%
15% -66.6% 18% -65.3%
20% -69.8% 9% -68.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$44 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$381
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage44d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$14 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $81 +$59 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $47 +$45 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 04 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $45 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 25 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $10 −$10 -91%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $104 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 5¢ $11 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 57¢ $47 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 2¢ $22 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY No 3¢ $28 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY No 1¢ $50 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 80¢ $23 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 79¢ $49 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY Yes 30¢ $47 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $53 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 35d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 39d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 42d
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.06 · official $27.06 (match) · 91 history records