Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5B 0x5b9d…b2a1 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$131 (+10%) realized +$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$403
14 days+$435
30 days+$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$264
other 42% +$98
world 8% +$123
sports 3% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +68.2% +52.2% 62% 62% +56.1%
≤30d 9 +67.5% +51.6% 67% 67% +55.3%
≤90d 9 +67.5% +51.6% 67% 67% +55.3%
all 33 +13.4% +2.6% 55% 45% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 45% +25.7%
10% -7.2% 36% +13.7%
15% -16.2% 30% +2.7%
20% -24.4% 21% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$13 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.94 per $1 lost it wins $3.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage140d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $209 +$40 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $66 +$336 +513%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $47 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$31 +62%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $105 +$123 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 11 $43 −$38 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 11 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 11 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 11 $24 +$9 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 11 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 10 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 09 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 09 $35 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 09 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 09 $25 $0 +1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $40 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 08 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 08 $29 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 08 $16 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 08 $25 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 99¢ $248 46m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 83¢ $209 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 79¢ $47 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 78¢ $47 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $45 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 16¢ $66 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 9d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 120d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $105 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 128d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $43 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $30 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $33 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $12 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $12 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $24 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 138d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $132 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records