Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5B 0x5b9e…75fd other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$277 (-6%) realized −$1,378 · open +$1,101
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$5,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days−$18
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$975
politics 2% +$147
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +123.2% +101.9% 100% 100% +101.9%
≤30d 6 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -49.3%
≤90d 6 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -49.3%
all 9 -9.2% -17.9% 33% 33% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -5.6%
10% -25.7% 33% -14.7%
15% -32.9% 33% -22.9%
20% -39.5% 33% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$24 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$5,038
Realized−$1,378
Unrealized+$1,101
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage208d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,937 $5,038 +$1,101 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$8 +123%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $9 $0 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $195? Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 09 $91 +$148 +162%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 03 $200 −$102 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $38 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $780 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,059 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $988 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $871 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $7 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 17¢ $8 27d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 28d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 20¢ $144 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,038.13 · official $5,038.13 (match) · 51 history records