Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5B 0x5ba0…1803 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,813 (+19%) realized +$1,819 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%68W / 49L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$406
14 days+$808
30 days+$1,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,717
other 4% −$44
world 1% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +16.4% +5.3% 57% 57% -0.5%
≤30d 117 +16.1% +5.1% 58% 58% +5.8%
≤90d 117 +16.1% +5.1% 58% 58% +5.8%
all 117 +16.1% +5.1% 58% 58% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 58% +5.8%
10% -5.0% 58% -4.3%
15% -14.2% 58% -13.6%
20% -22.6% 58% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$69 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$1,819
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses68 / 49
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage24d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 44¢ $189 $183 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$78 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $139 +$105 +76%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $296 +$199 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $201 +$195 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $333 −$333 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $401 +$318 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $192 +$340 +177%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$19 +65%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $100 +$97 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $33 +$26 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $89 +$55 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 +$48 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $200 +$211 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $60 +$68 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 +$41 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $70 +$49 +70%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$47 +473%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $44 +$29 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $200 +$172 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $200 −$9 -4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $50 +$32 +63%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $130 +$99 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $80 +$75 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $63 +$46 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $60 +$56 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $100 +$83 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $80 +$78 +97%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $78 +$46 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $60 −$4 -7%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $20 +$15 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $4 16m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 16m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $16 17m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 19m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $16 19m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 21m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $2 21m
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $151 21m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $77 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $111 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $90 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $16 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $49 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $74 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $494 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $296 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $396 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $201 31h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $79 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.99 · official $182.99 (match) · 305 history records