Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5B 0x5ba4…6a8c sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,090 (-26%) realized −$1,118 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%25W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$387
14 days−$303
30 days−$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$268
other 40% −$721
crypto 3% −$102
world 2% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.8% -32.9% 16% 16% -34.5%
≤30d 34 -14.3% -22.4% 18% 18% -29.1%
≤90d 135 -55.2% -59.4% 8% 8% -39.0%
all 169 -28.5% -35.3% 15% 14% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 14% -37.8%
10% -41.5% 14% -43.8%
15% -47.1% 14% -49.2%
20% -52.3% 12% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$21 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$1,118
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses25 / 144
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions13
Markets (closed)169 / 182
History coverage144d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+33%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$149 +291%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $95 −$93 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $386 −$382 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $111 +$84 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $71 −$69 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $22 −$22 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 0 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $24 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $18 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $56 −$54 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $99 −$96 -97%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC? May 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $105 −$102 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 20 $45 +$155 +344%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Burnley FC? May 19 $23 +$177 +785%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Liverpool FC? May 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 0 Liverpool FC? May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $25 −$25 -97%
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: SC Braga (-1.5) May 07 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5) May 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $18 +$82 +442%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 07 $12 +$168 +1445%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 37h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $35 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $95 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $196 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.97 · official $308.97 (match) · 530 history records