Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
5B 0x5ba6…ab05 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$3,662 (+24%) realized +$3,720 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%60W / 59L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$2,014
14 days+$2,108
30 days+$2,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$2,753
sports 33% +$650
crypto 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +66.3% +50.5% 44% 44% +47.4%
≤30d 69 +40.6% +27.2% 48% 48% +17.6%
≤90d 119 +28.6% +16.3% 50% 50% +12.6%
all 119 +28.6% +16.3% 50% 50% +12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 50% +12.6%
10% +5.2% 50% +1.8%
15% -5.0% 50% -8.0%
20% -14.3% 47% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$109 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,813
Realized+$3,720
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses60 / 59
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions6
Markets (closed)119 / 125
History coverage72d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,117 +$117 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $500 $391 −$109 (-22%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $97 $96 −$2 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Arthur Fery 43¢ 8¢ $78 $15 −$63 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $25 −$24 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$97 -97%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 18 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 +$205 +205%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $150 +$208 +138%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 18 $100 +$547 +547%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $45 −$44 -97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 17 $100 +$179 +179%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $50 +$160 +320%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $100 +$186 +186%
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$104 +104%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $40 +$444 +1110%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 +$386 +386%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $100 −$97 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$102 +100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$254 +248%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$94 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$231 +225%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +108%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$115 +113%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $103 +$334 +325%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $102 +$94 +92%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $102 +$120 +118%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $103 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $102 +$87 +85%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $102 +$90 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $102 +$90 +89%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $101 −$100 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 43¢ $80 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 10¢ $25 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $100 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 8h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 8h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $100 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 18h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $100 20h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $100 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $100 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $150 42h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $50 43h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $100 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $100 43h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $100 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $100 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 16¢ $45 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 2¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $26 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $16 2d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,813.45 · official $1,813.45 (match) · 259 history records