Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5B 0x5bac…8769 sports 375 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,558 (-0%) realized −$2,518 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%170W / 204L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,654per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$3,999est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 214d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,272
world 10% −$2,185
other 5% −$2,674
politics 1% −$489
crypto 0% +$123
weather 0% −$911
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 33% +3.1%
≤30d 58 -14.5% -22.6% 38% 34% -27.2%
≤90d 206 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 35% -9.3%
all 374 -13.4% -21.6% 45% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 36% -10.2%
10% -29.1% 27% -18.8%
15% -36.0% 21% -26.7%
20% -42.2% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,173) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$723 vs −$636 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,518
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses170 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$3,999
Open positions1
Markets (closed)374 / 375
History coverage214d
Avg bet$1,654
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 41¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$2 +10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $26 −$4 -16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $34 +$28 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $59 +$14 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$20 -194%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$10 -194%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $125 −$20 -16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $941 −$941 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $262 −$38 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Foggia: Varvara Lepchenko vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 03 $208 −$208 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $348 −$6 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $328 −$4 -1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $262 −$40 -15%
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi Jun 03 $595 +$407 +68%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $20 −$16 -78%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $212 −$212 -100%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Maks Kasnikowski Jun 02 $127 +$85 +67%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $619 −$612 -99%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $387 +$232 +60%
Little Rock: Yuta Shimizu vs Bernard Tomic May 27 $193 +$195 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $53 +$138 +259%
Roland Garros WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Solana Sierra May 27 $650 −$639 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $400 −$392 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $2,000 −$1,548 -77%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek May 27 $123 −$120 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $1,078 +$1,046 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $488 −$488 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $1,837 −$1,701 -93%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1,173 +$179 +15%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 26 $273 +$406 +148%
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) May 26 $304 +$188 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 26 $342 −$342 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $225 −$225 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Ashlyn Krueger May 26 $399 +$199 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 44h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Under 15¢ $21 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $26 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $100 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $34 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 81¢ $59 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 20¢ $9 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $125 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $96 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 9d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 45¢ $300 11d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 75¢ $1,020 12d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $26 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $25 12d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 33¢ $100 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 20¢ $25 17d
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 58¢ $941 19d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 86¢ $342 19d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 56¢ $64 19d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 56¢ $3 19d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 56¢ $23 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 1647 history records