Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5B 0x5baf…df89 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$11
sports 24% +$89
crypto 15% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +26.4% +14.3% 69% 69% -13.5%
≤30d 13 +26.4% +14.3% 69% 69% -13.5%
≤90d 13 +26.4% +14.3% 69% 69% -13.5%
all 13 +26.4% +14.3% 69% 69% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 69% -13.5%
10% +3.4% 54% -21.8%
15% -6.6% 46% -29.4%
20% -15.7% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$69 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$52 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$38 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 30h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.00 · official $59.00 (match) · 23 history records