Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5B 0x5baf…3e56 sports 586 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-0%) realized −$102 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%247W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,282est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days+$1,047
14 days+$718
30 days−$905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$387
other 1% −$596
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +14.0% +3.1% 47% 47% +0.2%
≤30d 139 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 402 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 42% -9.6%
all 584 -1.9% -11.3% 42% 42% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 42% -10.3%
10% -19.8% 42% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 42% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 40% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$153 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses247 / 337
Est. fees paid−$1,282
Open positions2
Markets (closed)584 / 586
History coverage150d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $360 $357 −$3 (-1%)
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 28¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $118 +$232 +197%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $238 −$234 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $256 +$258 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $153 +$103 +67%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $147 −$144 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $201 −$198 -99%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $233 −$229 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $268 −$264 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $193 +$307 +159%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $219 −$214 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $191 −$190 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $128 −$125 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $245 −$245 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $248 +$352 +142%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $193 −$189 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $284 −$280 -99%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $238 +$362 +152%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $224 +$276 +124%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $262 −$258 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $199 +$301 +152%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $314 −$310 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $183 +$317 +172%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $274 +$226 +83%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $194 +$306 +158%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $259 +$241 +93%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $163 −$160 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $188 +$312 +165%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $233 +$267 +114%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $160 −$157 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $234 −$230 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $183 −$179 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $304 +$196 +64%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $249 −$245 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $128 −$125 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $194 −$190 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $224 +$276 +124%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $234 +$266 +114%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $209 +$291 +140%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $183 −$180 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $256 −$252 -98%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $183 +$317 +172%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $158 +$342 +216%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $107 +$393 +365%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $178 −$175 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $205 −$205 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $274 +$226 +83%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $207 +$343 +165%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $138 +$362 +262%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $143 −$140 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $364 22m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $350 23m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 28¢ $143 55m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 33¢ $118 3h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 39¢ $238 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $514 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 49¢ $256 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $256 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $153 8h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $147 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $201 11h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 45¢ $0 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 45¢ $18 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 45¢ $4 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 45¢ $211 26h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $268 29h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 100¢ $499 29h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 31¢ $219 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $31 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $148 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 38¢ $11 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 38¢ $152 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 38¢ $38 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $128 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 49¢ $245 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 38¢ $193 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 41¢ $248 2d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 56¢ $284 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.95 · official $356.95 (match) · 885 history records