Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5B 0x5baf…94d8 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,266 (-1%) realized −$1,266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate28%34W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$886per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$46
other 37% +$4
sports 11% −$1,200
world 5% −$28
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% −$4
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -13.2% -21.4% 11% 0% -12.3%
all 122 +1.5% -8.2% 28% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 12% -10.6%
10% -17.0% 10% -19.1%
15% -25.0% 9% -27.0%
20% -32.4% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,244) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized−$1,266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses34 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage138d
Avg bet$886
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $547 $547 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $4,919 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $603 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $755 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $943 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,767 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $220 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 31 $403 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $318 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $228 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $418 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,675 −$5 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $875 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $410 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 01 $208 +$1 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $3,160 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,081 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,717 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,148 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,211 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,721 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $215 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 12 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $304 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $304 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $547 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $582 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $583 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $696 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $697 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $869 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $854 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $855 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $754 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $755 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $920 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $921 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $942 16d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $943 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $897 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $898 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $932 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $934 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $696 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $696 18d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 20d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $328 20d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $317 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.06 · official $547.06 (match) · 371 history records