Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5B 0x5bb2…97ed sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$193 (+4%) realized +$84 · open +$109
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$481
7 days+$878
14 days+$878
30 days+$878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$638
other 11% +$283
crypto 3% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 46% +9.7%
≤30d 28 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 46% +9.7%
≤90d 28 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 46% +9.7%
all 28 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 46% +9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 46% +9.7%
10% -17.3% 46% -0.8%
15% -25.3% 43% -10.4%
20% -32.6% 36% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$118 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$609
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $300 $411 +$111 (+37%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $192 +$330 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $195 +$118 +61%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$154 +76%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $202 +$85 +42%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$87 +43%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $255 +$637 +250%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $127 −$125 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 −$250 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$232 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 +$276 +180%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $248 +$285 +115%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$181 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$179 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $203 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $521 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $192 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $102 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 39¢ $102 6h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou BUY EAC Rising 28¢ $102 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 62¢ $195 29h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 44¢ $203 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $97 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $357 31h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 39¢ $102 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $286 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $202 33h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $202 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $203 36h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Resilience 91¢ $289 39h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 63¢ $202 39h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $127 42h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 28¢ $255 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $153 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $254 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $203 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $10 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.28 · official $614.46 (match) · 55 history records